Oct. 27th, 2007

davehogg: (Default)
3:55 Angie and I are going to take a nap to see if we can find the energy to go to a Halloween party tonight.

So here are the last three picks:

In the Distaff, Angie is picking Lady Joanne, the system is picking Unbridled Belle and I'm going to go with a longshot, Tough Tiz's Sis. Indian Vale scares me to death, though.

If the Turf, Angie has English Channel, and I'm agreeing with the system on the Irish star, Dylan Thomas.

Then the Classic. Angie has the Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense. The system has the Preakness winner, Curlin. I'd make it a Triple Crown by taking the Belmont winner, Rags to Riches, but she's not actually in the race. So I'm going to go for the early speed in the mud - Hard Spun.

(Rags to Riches would have been in the Distaff, but she got hurt in her last race. She should be back in 2008.)

3:29 I hate Johnny Murtagh. Excellent Art was flying coming off the turn and the stupid jockey ran him right into the back of Nobiz Like Shobiz. He eventually figured out that he needed to go AROUND the horse, not through him, and Excellent Art got going again ... and lost by a length to Kip Deville. That should be 5-for-5.

Kip was rated fourth, by the way.

3:25- Turf Mile: Here's the trick - my system doesn't have the info needed to rank Euro-based horses, but I made up a workaround. That gives the edge in this race to Excellent Art with a 226 rating, ahead of two horses with full ratings - Trippi's Storm (223) and After Market (222). This is going to come up again in the Turf.

Excellent Art seems to be the best horse by far. The only negative is that he's starting way wide, but after Lahudood's rally in the F&M Turf, I'll take him. Besides, Trippi's Storm has a tendency to not run when they open the gate.

Angie's taking Jeremy.

2:43 Um. Midnight Lute just won with a crazed rally. A rating that I invented this morning that is taking me about 30 seconds to figure out for each horse has gotten ALL FOUR BREEDERS' CUP RACES RIGHT. The Pick 4? Just over $2,000 for a two-dollar bet.

2:30- Sprint: Midnight Lute (235) and Benny the Bull (234) are miles ahead of the field on paper - Smokey Stover is third-rated at 216 - but they are both horses that will come from behind, and that's not easy on the mud.

Commentator scares me - he's 3-for-3 on wet tracks, and he'll have mud caulks. I'll take him.

Angie is taking Greg's Gold.

2:03 Holy crap - Lahudood wins at 11-1, and the system is 3-for-3 today. A $2 bet on the Pick-3 would have paid $336.

Precious Kitten got wiped out of the race when a British horse blew the first turn and took two horses with her. None of the horses fell, but they ended up miles behind and 30 feet wide through the turn.

Angie got 2nd. I'm not going to feel bad about Argentina - I was so busy looking up yesterday's races that I didn't realize I hadn't made my own pick until they were loading into the gate. :)

1:55- Filly and Mare Turf: System pick is Lahudood, with a 215. Precious Kitten also gets a 215, but Lahudood has a better post position, and that's the tiebreaker.

All My Loving gets bonus points for having last raced Sunday ... in Ireland.

Argentina in the upset. Angie picks Honey Rider.

1:27 I'm curious now as to how the system did yesterday. It had Maryfield as a contender in the F&M Sprint, but picked Miss Macy Sue. In the Juvenile Turf, it saw the three Euros as vastly better, and wasn't even a fan of Nownownow among the Americans. In the Dirt Mile, the system loved High Finance, and wasn't a fan of Corinthian.

1:17 Well, the system is 2-for-2. That was almost an instant replay of the Juvenile Fillies - War Pass went out to the lead, no one went with him and he walked home. Pyro, which my system had second, made a big run at the end to keep War Pass from winning by 10 lengths, but it was never in doubt.

By the way, in all the years I had a big complicated Access database, my record for the Breeders Cup was 1.5 winners - I won the Classic and had a dead-heat winner in the Mile. Now a mathematical system that I invented this morning is 2-for-2.

12:56- Juvenile: System is picking War Pass (208), and he should have the lead, and he's won on a muddy track. I can't pick against him. Angie is picking Z Humor (202) for no real reason.

12:37 Well, the system is 1-for-1. Indian Blessing got out to an early lead, no one went with her, and she cruised home. Proud Spell finished second, so the mud caulks might be something to watch. Actually, horses with caulks finished 2-3-4, so this is definitely something to watch.

12:30- Juvenile Fillies: Indian Blessing, Proud Spell and Smarty Deb are both undefeated, and all serious contenders by my new rating system. The system actually picks Indian Blessing, with a 189. Angie, on the other hand, picks Tasha's Miracle, because her grandparents had a spoiled poodle named Tasha.

I'm going with Izarra. None of these horses have ever won on a wet track - only one has even raced on one - but Izarra has great wet-track breeding and posted a 187 rating in his last race despite being way wide. Her granddam is Bayakoa, one of the best female horses ever.

Late note: Proud Truth is wearing mud caulks - cleated horseshoes for wet tracks - and that usually gives a big advantage. We'll see how that works out.

12:15 I'm going to keep updating this post through the day instead of making 8 posts.

Now we're back to the traditional BC races. The smallest purse is $2M. Track is still swampy.

Five? Six?

Oct. 27th, 2007 09:38 pm
davehogg: (Default)
I'm not sure if my system should get credit for going 5-for-8 or 6-for-8. The system itself can't rate European horses, but I was going with the cheat I mentioned earlier. If I eliminate that and go with the strict system itself, the program got six - getting English Channel in the Turf and Curlin in the Classic.

Getting six Breeders' Cup races right is ... insane. I've never gotten more than two before.

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